住房和其他价格泡沫:积累、爆发和影响

G. Kaufman, A. Malliaris, R. W. Nelson
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本章认为,资产价格泡沫需要重新仔细审视,因为它们对经济的不利影响往往非常巨大。2006年房地产泡沫的破裂及其引发全球金融危机的后果就是这样一个例子。在回顾了关于房地产和股票市场泡沫及其对经济影响的资产泡沫的一般文献之后,我们通过提出一个基本的房价模型来贡献文献,该模型允许我们估计住宅房地产泡沫的大小及其开始和结束日期。21世纪初美国房地产泡沫的持续时间和规模是根据影响住房需求和房价的力量的性质的不同假设来估计的。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Housing and Other Price Bubbles: The Buildup, the Burst, and the Impact
This chapter argues that asset price bubbles need to be re-examined carefully because their adverse impact on an economy has often been very substantial. The bursting of the housing bubble in 2006 and its consequences on triggering the near global financial crisis is such example. After reviewing the general literature on asset bubbles on housing and stock markets bubbles and their impacts on an economy, we contribute to the literature by proposing a fundamental housing price model that allows us to estimate the magnitude of residential housing bubbles and their starting and ending dates. The duration and the magnitude of the U.S. housing bubble in the early 2000s are estimated under alternative assumptions about the nature of forces affecting the demand for housing and housing prices.
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