SEIR模型在湖北省新冠肺炎疫情早期预测中的应用

Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Bioinformatics Research and Applications Pub Date : 2020-09-13 DOI:10.1145/3440067.3440071

Tianmeng Huang

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引用次数: 0

摘要

自2020年1月以来，新型冠状病毒疫情迅速蔓延，所有地区确诊病例均有所增加。疫情引起了地方政府的高度重视。中国首次发现新冠肺炎病例的地区是湖北省武汉市，在疫情传播过程中可能具有较为典型的数据趋势。本文采用SEIR(易感-暴露-感染-恢复)传播动力学模型，模拟了湖北省疫情的真实发展情况。本文主要介绍新冠肺炎流行病学几个重要参数的研究进展、估计方法以及基于SEIR模型的预测方法。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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Application of SEIR Model to Predict Covid-19’s Early Stage in Hubei Province

Novel Coronavirus epidemic has been rapidly spreading since January 2020 with an increase in confirmed cases in all regions. The epidemic has drawn great attention from local governments. The first cases of COVID-19 were found in Wuhan, Hubei province in China which may have relatively typical data trend in the spread of the epidemic. In this paper, the author uses the SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovery) model of transmission dynamics to simulate the real epidemic development in Hubei province. The purpose of this article is to present recent research advances and estimation methods for several important epidemiological parameters of COVID-19 and the prediction based on SEIR model.

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Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Bioinformatics Research and Applications

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