Review of "The World Model Controversy: Will Mankind Survive?, by Richard M. Laska", Computer Decisions, 1972

This well-written paper expounds in some detail on the well-publicized results of computer simulations of the behavior of dynamic world systems. These systems try to predict future trends of "comfortability" variables, like natural resources and food available, industrial output, population and pollution levels, etc. The models are based on equations, often overly simplistic or estimated, for the interaction of these variables. There seem to be no provisions for sideway modification of the variables: people moving to rural areas because of pollution, or to the suburbs because of crime; or substitution of natural resources by artificial ones. In addition, most of the parameters, like birth rates, appear to be static. Results under the chosen assumptions paint a "worldwide breakdown" (of industrial society) "unless all growth in the variables can be stopped." To the reviewer, in a formerly pollution-ridden city, these worthwhile investigations appear not much more than the simple calculations of "standing room only" type, even if he does not agree with the strongest critics ("a bunch of schoolkids with a computer predicting the world"). The paper succeeds well in delineating the current controversy, even if in places it has a sensationalistic appearance. Also, more detailed technical material may have been of benefit.