投资者情绪与股票价格关系研究——基于贝叶斯模型的投资者情绪分类实现

Yu-xin Zhang, Xinghua Liu, Wen-Jin Wang, Yijiao Liu
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引用次数: 2

摘要

中国股票市场的有效性较低,信息披露程度低于发达国家的资本市场。特别是创业板股票反映基本供求因素的速度较慢,投资者情绪会对创业板股票价格产生影响。本文选取东方货币网站“创业板指吧”的历史发帖数据。首先,利用贝叶斯模型算法对文本评论的情绪进行分类,构造投资者情绪代理变量;然后,通过相关分析和格兰杰因果检验,实证研究了投资者情绪与中国创业板股价之间的关系。结果表明,创业板股票价格与投资者情绪之间存在较强的相关性。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
A Study of Relationship between Investor Sentiment and Stock Price : Realization of Investor Sentiment Classification Based on Bayesian Model
The effectiveness of China’s stock market is low, and the degree of information disclosure is worse than that of capital markets in developed countries. In particular, GEM stocks are slow to reflect basic supply and demand factors, and investor sentiment will have an impact on GEM stock prices. This paper selects the historical posting data of “GEM Finger Bar” of Eastmoney website. Firstly, Bayesian model algorithm is used to classify the sentiment of text comments, and investor sentiment proxy variables are constructed. Then, through correlation analysis and Granger causality test, the relationship between investor sentiment and the GEM stock price in China is empirically studied. The results show that there is a strong correlation between GEM stock prices and investor sentiment.
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