Forecasting the Prospect of the Future Business Growth and Detecting Distorted Earnings in Public Insurance Industry: The Voice from Indonesia

Insurance firms nowadays become a highlight for society after some cases of payment failure in Indonesia occur such as Jiwasraya, and Bumi Putera. It may decrease public trust in the prospect of the insurance business in the future. This research aims to demonstrate the future growth of the insurance business performances in Indonesia and detect distorted earnings. Afterward, the future growth yielded by firms between distorted and non-distorted earnings is tested in this research. The sample was public insurance firms in Indonesia. Financial data were analyzed using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) for forecasting future growth, meanwhile, the nexus between variables was tested using a logistic regression model of panel data. The result found that the prospect of insurance firms will be growing with positive and negative values. They will pull through the ups and downs of business over the period of 2021 to 2027. This research further detected the distorted earnings in the insurance business performances and found that the future growth yielded by firms with distorted earnings has no difference from non-distorted earnings. The finding is addressed to the insurance companies as input. They need to prepare their business from now by increasing their performance. This finding is considered as the means of rebuilding their trust in the growth of the insurance business and providing the answer to society regarding the insurance business prospect in the future.