Crime and Vigilance

This paper develops a novel equilibrium theory of property crime. A population of potential victims elects how much costly vigilance to exert to guard their property, while a population of potential criminals chooses whether to engage in crime, and if so, how much, and what caliber of oenses to attempt. Crimes arise from random encounters of criminals and potential victims. The deterrence rate | i.e., the failure chance of an attempted crime | rises in vigilance and falls in caliber. It acts as a market-clearing price in the unique equilibrium, equilibrating actions of all agents. Our model predicts how changes in the values of goods to criminal or owner, legal punishment, the technology of theft, or vigilance, or policing aect seven observables: the crime rate, attempted crime rate, deterrence rate, criminal entry rates, oenses