肯尼亚的经济增长、电力供应和汇款

S. M. Onuonga
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引用次数: 1

摘要

本文使用1987-2018年期间的数据,在肯尼亚的多变量框架内调查了国内生产总值、电力供应和汇款之间的长期关系。采用自回归分布滞后(ARDL)界限检验来考察长期关系。采用格兰杰因果关系法研究变量间的因果关系。边界检验表明,当国内生产总值、电力获取和汇款为因变量时,存在协整。对系数的长期估计表明,在样本期内,电力供应和汇款对肯尼亚的经济增长具有显著的积极影响。因果关系分析提供的证据表明,存在单向格兰杰因果关系,从国内生产总值到电力供应,而不是相反,从国内生产总值到汇款,而不是相反。汇款和电力供应之间没有因果关系。该论文的政策含义表明,政府和其他有关公司应该加强电力供应,鼓励汇款流入,因为这些对肯尼亚的经济增长做出了积极贡献。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Economic Growth, Electricity Access, and Remittances in Kenya
This paper investigated the long-run relationship between gross domestic product, access to electricity, and remittances within the multivariate framework in Kenya using the data for the period 1987-2018. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds test was used to investigate the long-run relationship. Causality between variables was investigated by use of the Granger causality method. The bounds test indicated that there is cointegration when gross domestic product, electricity access, and remittances are dependent variables. The long-run estimation of coefficients suggests that electricity access and remittances have significant positive impact on economic growth in Kenya in the sample period. Causality analysis provides evidence that there is unidirectional Granger causality running from gross domestic product to electricity access and not vice versa and from gross domestic product to remittances and not vice versa. There was no causality between remittances and electricity access. The policy implications of the paper suggest that the government and other companies concerned should enhance electricity access and encourage inflows of remittances as these contribute positively to economic growth in Kenya.
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