跳出框框思考:SPF受访者是否锚定了通胀预期?

C. Binder, Wesley Janson, Randal J. Verbrugge
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引用次数: 6

摘要

尽管专业预测者调查(SPF)的10年通胀预期中位数稳定在接近2%,但我们发现,自2012年1月联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)制定通胀目标以来,甚至自2015年以来,没有一个SPF受访者的预期被锚定在目标上。然而,我们发现了“延迟锚定”的重要证据,特别是在2015年12月联邦基金利率上调之后。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Thinking Outside the Box: Do SPF Respondents Have Anchored Inflation Expectations?
Despite the stability of the median 10-year inflation expectations in the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) near 2 percent, we show that not a single SPF respondent’s expectations have been anchored at the target since the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) enactment of an inflation target in January 2012, or even since 2015. However, we find significant evidence for “delayed anchoring,” or a move toward being anchored, particularly after the federal funds rate lifted off in December 2015.
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