利用深度学习确定窗口长度对时间序列预测的影响

A. Azlan, Y. Yusof, M. Mohsin
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引用次数: 8

摘要

时间序列预测是一种基于以往观测预测未来的方法。它取决于同一变量的值,但在不同的时间段。迄今为止,各种模型已用于股票市场时间序列预测,特别是使用深度学习模型。然而,现有的模型实现并没有确定合适的先前观测数,即窗口长度。因此,本研究探讨了长短期记忆模型的窗口长度对股票市场价格预测的影响。预测是在标准普尔500指数每日收盘价数据集上执行的。在同一模型和数据集上测试了25天、50天和100天的不同窗口长度。实验结果表明,不同的窗口长度产生不同的预测精度。在所使用的数据集中,最好使用100作为预测股票市场价格的窗口长度。这样的发现表明了确定合适的窗口长度对于手头问题的重要性,因为在时间序列预测中没有放之四海而皆准的模型。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Determining the impact of window length on time series forecasting using deep learning
Time series forecasting is a method of predicting the future based on previous observations. It depends on the values of the same variable, but at different time periods. To date, various models have been used in stock market time series forecasting, in particular using deep learning models. However, existing implementations of the models did not determine the suitable number of previous observations, that is the window length. Hence, this study investigates the impact of window length of long short-term memory model in forecasting stock market price. The forecasting is performed on S&P500 daily closing price data set. A different window length of 25-day, 50-day, and 100-day were tested on the same model and data set. The result of the experiment shows that different window length produced different forecasting accuracy. In the employed dataset, it is best to utilize 100 as the window length in forecasting the stock market price. Such a finding indicates the importance of determining the suitable window length for the problem in-hand as there is no One-Size-Fits-All model in time series forecasting.
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