游客在登革热流行中的作用:模型方法

King Mongkut’s University of Technology North Bangkok International Journal of Applied Science and Technology Pub Date : 2016-06-20 DOI:10.14416/J.IJAST.2016.06.002

K. Patanarapeelert, S. Polwiang, N. Kanyamee, Wannapa Panitsupakamon, Passawan Noppakaew

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引用次数: 0

摘要

众所周知，国际旅行是导致登革热呈上升趋势的一个因素。在什么情况下，这些旅行者能够加强或减少传播，这仍然是一个问题。在本研究中，我们试图借助数学模型来回答这个问题。导出了基本复制数。分析表明，只有当当地传播接近阈值时，游客才会对疫情做出贡献。对2013年普吉岛登革热疫情进行分析，发现游客对该年登革热疫情的出现没有贡献。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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Role of Tourists on Emerging of Dengue Epidemic: Model Approach

International travel is known as a factor that can contribute the increasing trend of dengue. It is still questioned on under what condition those travelers are able to underpin or diminish the transmission. In this study, we attempt to answer this question with the help of a mathematical model. The basic reproduction number is derived. An analysis showed that the tourists can contribute in epidemic only if the local transmission is closed to the threshold. We apply the analysis to dengue epidemic in Phuket, 2013 and showed that the tourists cannot contribute the emerging of dengue outbreak in that year.

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King Mongkut’s University of Technology North Bangkok International Journal of Applied Science and Technology

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