巴基斯坦在全球和地区事务中的地位和作用

Zainab Ahmed, Hasnain Reza Mirza
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摘要

由于复杂、扩大和复杂的安全问题、不对称冲突、主权和领土完整问题重叠的经济挑战以及这些威胁的社会经济影响,全球动态正在迅速变化。这一过渡阶段的核心是权力从西方向亚洲转移。这些现实已经在地缘经济中放大了,二十一世纪正在以此为基础,因为二十世纪属于地缘政治。这一根本性转变正在提升巴基斯坦这个连接欧亚愿景的“拉链国”、“一带一路”的“夹缝国”的战略意义。美国竞争中国的首要因素和前者决定俄罗斯的恶性因素加剧了在该地区发挥最大影响力的竞标。印度已成为美国优先考虑的自然和潜在选择。印度在印太地区的新地位是美国的网络安全提供者,它与美国就庞大的后勤、情报和军事系统合作达成了基础协议,使其成为西方遏制中国和俄罗斯的宝贵伙伴。美国-印度-以色列在印度洋的新兴关系显然是为了包围中国和俄罗斯,巴基斯坦被提升为前线或第一个目标,或者如果充分利用和激励,成为防御者。俄罗斯审慎的欧亚愿景和国际南北贸易走廊是一个与伊朗和印度合作的双赢项目。然而,前者对美国的自然倾向,以及后者由于《亚伯拉罕协议》(Abraham Accords)后阿以在霍尔木兹海峡的联系而面临的高度有限的选择,可能会对这些互联互通愿景的实用性构成挑战。中国、俄罗斯、伊朗、巴基斯坦和土耳其对区域互联互通的需求日益增长,这使他们自然而然地成为相互和地区安全繁荣的纽带。最重要的一点是,瓜达尔港在满足区域贸易、互联互通和对接其他区域贸易通道方面具有巨大潜力,安全前景要好得多。俄罗斯是重要的国际和地区参与者,巴基斯坦有充分利用巴基斯坦在全球政治中扩大的作用获取实际利益的良好前景,可以共同发挥更好的反制作用。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
PLACE AND ROLE OF PAKISTAN IN GLOBAL AND REGIONAL AFFAIRS
The global dynamics are rapidly changing owing to compounded, augmented and complexed security issues, assymetric conflicts, economic challenges overlapping issues of sovereignty and territorial integrities and socio-economic implications of these threats. At the core of this transitory phase lies the shift of power from the West to Asia. These realities have zoomed in the geoeconomics and the twenty first century is being drawn on this as the twentieth century belonged to the geopolitics. This fundamental transition is elevating the strategic significance of Pakistan, the "Zipper State", connecting the Eurasian Vision and a clipping state for Belt and Road Initiative. The primary factor of US to compete China and the former determining Russia a malign factor intensifies the bidding to have maximum influence in this region. India, has become a natural and potential choice of priority for the US. India's new found position in the Indo Pacific as the US Net Security Provider, it's foundational agreements with the US for huge logistic, intelligence and military systems cooperation renders it a valuable partner for the West to contain China and Russia. The emerging nexus of US-India-Israel in the Indian Ocean is clearly a bid to encircle China and Russia in which Pakistan elevates to be the front line or the first target, or if tapped and incentivized adequately, to be a defense. Russia's prudent Eurasian Vision and International North South Trade Corridor is a win-win project to engage Iran and India. Yet the former's natural inclination towards the the US and the latter's highly limited options due to Arab-Israel nexus in the Strait of Hormuz post Abraham Accords may pose a challenge to the practicality of these connectivity visions. The growing requirements of regional connectivity align China, Russia, Iran, Pakistan and Turkey naturally for the mutual and regional security and prosperity. The most significant point in this regional connectivity is the Gwadar Port having huge potential of catering to regional trade, connectivity and aligning with other regional trade routes with much better security prospects. Russia, an important global actor and regional player, and Pakistan have the suitable prospects to leverage Pakistan's magnified role in global politics for practical gains, can jointly play a better counter game.
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