世界粮食种植投资政策的空间与格局优化

D. Gertsekovich, L. Gorbachevskaya, O. Podlinyaev, T. Konstantinova
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文探讨了在国际层面上制定农业生产最优投资政策的问题。通过“收益-风险”模型来解决这个问题,该模型基于投资组合分析的基本原则:收益、风险和收益-风险比。该模型易于实现,不需要特殊技能;对于重要的估计,使用MSEXCEL日期挖掘插件是必要和足够的。本文分析了2010-2017年各国粮食作物生产率的历史数据,主要包括玉米、小麦、大麦和水稻。时间跨度为1年。源数据从knoema.com导出。结果表明:1)每个样本子组承诺形成了最具吸引力潜在投资结果的领先国家;2)对收益、风险和收益风险比的基准定量分析揭示了投资者对可接受风险水平的态度所决定的最具投资吸引力的作物和最有利可图的种植国家;③空间优化、方面优化和全局优化的结果为综合有效的投资决策支持系统提供了依据。事实证明,3%的风险增加只会带来1%的回报。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Spatial and Aspectual Optimization of the World Investment Policy for Grain Growing
The article is devoted to the problems of creating at the international level the optimal investment policy in agricultural production. The problem is solved by means of the “Return-Risk” model, which is based on the basic principles of the portfolio analysis: return, risk and the return-risk ratio. The model is easy to implement and does not require special skills; for important estimates it is necessary and sufficient to use MS EXCEL Date Mining Add-in. This article analyses the historical data of 2010–2017 by productivity of grain crops in general: corn, wheat, barley and rice in different countries. The time span is 1 year. The source data are exported from knoema.com. The findings are as follows: 1) the leading countries with the most attractive potential investment results have been formed for each sample subgroup promise; 2) the benchmarking quantitative analysis on return, risk and the return-risk ratio revealed both the most investment-attractive crops depending on the investor’s attitude to the acceptable risk level, and the countries where the cultivation will be most profitable; 3) the results of the spatial, aspectual and global optimization afford synthesis of effective decision support investment systems. It is proved that the 3 % increase in risk leads to only 1 % return.
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