书评-哈伯特的高峰:即将来临的世界石油短缺

A. Slaibi
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引用次数: 2

摘要

这本书提供了一个彻底的解释,起源,勘探,生产和销售的石油。作者的目的是提高人们的意识(如果不是试图拉响警报的话),一场前所未有的能源危机即将来临。Kenneth Deffeyes预测到2004年石油危机即将来临,这将表现为油价的急剧上涨。这听起来是不是很熟悉?这本书出版后的几年似乎只是提供了更多的证据,证明德法耶斯的预言可能是正确的。作者超越了哈伯特的模式;他不仅通过模拟当前的石油产量和储量来预测即将到来的峰值,而且还从地理上和实验上解释了为什么石油储量和石油采收率将很快达到峰值,以及为什么即使是慷慨的石油储量估计也只会导致预期产量峰值在几年内发生变化。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Book Review - Hubbert's Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage
This book provides a thorough explanation of the origin, exploration, production, and marketing of oil. The author’s goal is to increase awareness (if not an attempt to raise the alarm) that an unprecedented energy crisis is just over the horizon. Kenneth Deffeyes predicted an impending oil crisis by 2004 which will manifest itself by a dramatic increase in oil prices. Does this sound familiar? The few years since this book has been published seem only to provide additional proof that Deffeyes’ prophecies might be correct. The author goes beyond Hubbert’s model; not only does he model current oil production and reserves to forecast an impending peak, but he also geographically and experimentally explains why oil reserves and oil recovery will peak soon and why even generous oil reserve estimates will lead only to a few years’ variation in the expected production peak.
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