尼日利亚能源消费动态与可持续增长

O. Okoroafor, Agbanike Tobechi Faith, Ohalete Precious Ifeanyi, Otta Nkama Nnachi, T. E. Mathew
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文利用1980 - 2020年的时间序列数据对尼日利亚的能源消费动态和可持续增长进行了实证研究。数据的主要来源是世界发展指数(WDI)和尼日利亚中央银行(CBN)统计公报各期。在检验所有数据的平稳性时,本文运用修正的Ng-Perron单位根检验对序列的平稳性进行检验,结果表明GDP增长率(GDPgr)在水平(即I(0))上进行了积分,而电力消费(ECNP)、煤炭消费(CCNP)和石油消费(PCNP)是一阶积分(即I(1))。这证明了协整自回归分布滞后(ARDL)模型的应用是合理的,其结果表明,所有序列之间都表现出稳定的长期关系。ARDL结合检验结果显示,f统计量为4.35,大于5%显著水平下的上限临界值3.79。这进一步表明,假设能源消费动态对尼日利亚的可持续增长没有显著影响的零假设可以被拒绝。基于上述发现,该论文除其他外提出,政府应该建立可再生生物质作为能源的补充,以推动尼日利亚的可持续增长。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Energy Consumption Dynamics and Sustainable Growth in Nigeria
The paper empirically examined the energy consumption dynamics and sustainable growth in Nigeria using time series data spanning from 1980 to 2020. The major sources of data were from the World Development Index (WDI) and Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin various issues. In checking the stationary status of all the data engaged, the paper applied modified Ng-Perron unit root test to check the stationary properties of the series, and the results showed that GDP growth rate (GDPgr) was integrated at level (that is I(0)) while electricity consumption (ECNP), coal consumption (CCNP) and petroleum consumption (PCNP) were integrated of order one (that is, I (1)). This justified the application of Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model of co-integration, whose results revealed that all series exhibited a stable long run relationship among them. The ARDL bound test result showed that the F-statistics was 4.35, which was greater than the upper bounds critical value of 3.79 at 5 percent level of significant. This further showed that the null hypothesis, which postulated that energy consumption dynamics has no significant impact on sustainable growth in Nigeria can be rejected. Based on the above findings, the paper submitted inter-alia that government should establish a renewable biomass as a supplement to energy sources in order to drive a sustainable growth in Nigeria.
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