道路工程风险因素及其影响评价

Feyisetan Leo-Olagbaye, H. Odeyinka
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引用次数: 2

摘要

众所周知,建设项目容易受到风险的影响。这导致无法达到性能目标。本文评估了尼日利亚奥松州道路项目交付过程中遇到的风险因素。采用问卷调查的方式,从参与研究区域内34个道路项目建设的所有146名建筑专业人员中获取数据。参与调查的专业人士包括34名顾问土木工程师、34名顾问土木工程师、34名顾问工料测量师、34名顾问工料测量师、1名项目融资人及9名项目经理,共146名受访者。采用二维标度法,要求受访者就风险的发生及其对道路项目的影响提供意见。收集的资料采用均数排序分析和学生t检验进行分析。采用因子分析法进行进一步分析,将影响道路工程的因素减少为更少的因子组成部分。结果表明,发生概率较高的风险因素依次为:工作范围变更、设计缺陷、错误和返工、设计变更、设计细节的延迟可用性和不可预见的不利条件。令人惊讶的是,根据分析结果,排名靠前的风险因素并不是那些影响较大的因素。通过因子分析,得到风险发生程度的9个成分因子,占解释方差的73.73%;风险发生影响的4个成分因子,占解释方差的46.16%。研究的结论是,参与道路工程交付的专业人员需要意识到影响道路工程的重大风险因素,并采取积极主动的风险管理方法来应对这些风险,以避免意外发生。关键词:绩效,项目,风险因素,风险影响,途径
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
An Evaluation of Risk Factors and their Impact on Road Project
Construction projects are generally known to be susceptible to risks. This results in an inability to meet performance targets. This paper assessed the risk factors encountered in the delivery of road projects in Osun State, Nigeria. A questionnaire survey was used to obtain data from all the 146 construction professionals involved in the construction of the 34 road projects executed in the study area. The professionals comprised of 34 Consultant Civil Engineers, 34 Consultants’ Civil Engineers, 34 Consultant Quantity Surveyors, 34 Consultants’ Quantity Surveyors, one project financier and 9 Project Managers, making a total of 146 respondents. Using two-dimensional scaling, the respondents were asked to provide opinions on risk occurrence and their impacts on road projects. The data collected were analysed using mean ranking analysis and student t-test. A further analysis was carried out using factor analysis to reduce the factors impacting road projects into fewer factor components. The results revealed that the risk factors with high extent of occurrence are in the order of change in scope of work, defective design, error and re-work, change in design, delay in availability of design details and unforeseen adverse conditions. Surprisingly, the top ranking risk factors are not the ones with high impact based on the result of the analysis. Using factor analysis, 9 component factors regarding the extent of risk occurrence were obtained and they accounted for 73.73% of the variance explained while 4- component factors were obtained regarding the impact of risk occurrence and they accounted for 46.16% of the variance explained. The study concluded that professionals involved in the delivery of road projects need to be aware of the significant risk factors impacting road projects and put proactive risk management approach in place to deal with them to avoid surprises.Keywords: Performance, Projects, Risk factors, Risk impact, Road.
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