《凯撒大帝》中的投票算法

Zvi Lotker
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引用次数: 2

摘要

本文提出了一种预测人们选择的投票算法。通常,一旦提出了新的算法,就需要证明算法的合理性,也就是说,证明算法完成了设定的任务。但在选举预测算法的情况下,如何证明它们的可靠性尚不清楚。本文通过分析戏剧的社会网络提供了一种处理这一问题的方法,遵循莎士比亚的名言:“整个世界是一个舞台,所有的男人和女人都只是演员”。这种方法的优势是显而易见的。凯撒大帝的故事是我们集体记忆的一部分。我们在剧中了解主角的观点和观点。例如,我们知道布鲁图反对凯撒,而安东尼支持凯撒,反对布鲁图。通过从戏剧中生成社交图,解决了稳健性问题,使过程更加科学。投票算法需要每个政党的锚。锚点是那些观点清晰且为人所知的人物/节点。在戏剧《凯撒大帝》中,布鲁图斯和卡修斯是阴谋者,安东尼和屋大维是凯撒的支持者。在确定了主播之后,投票算法使用简单的随机漫步,将角色网络划分为两方。现在可以检查投票算法的输出,并看到该算法确实正确地工作。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Voting algorithm in the play Julius Caesar
This paper suggests a voting algorithm for predicting people's choices. Usually, once a new algorithm is offered, one needs to prove the soundness of the algorithm, i.e., showing that the algorithm does the thing it is set up to do. But in the case of election prediction algorithms it's not clear how to prove their soundness. This paper offers a way to deal with this problem by analysing the social networks of plays, following Shakespeare dictum: "all the world is a stage, and all the men and women merely players", As you like it, act I scene VII. The advantage of this approach is clear. The story of Julius Caesar is part of our collective memory. We learn the leading characters views and opinions throughout the play. For example, we know that Brutus was against Caesar, while Antony supported Caesar, and opposed Brutus. By generating the social graph from a play, the problems of soundness is solved, which makes the process more scientific. The voting algorithm needs anchors for each party. The anchors are the characters/nodes whose opinions are clear and known. In the case of the play Julius Caesar, the anchors are Brutus and Cassius for the conspirators and Antony and Octavius for the supporters of Caesar. After the anchors were identified the voting algorithm uses simple random walks, to divide the network of characters into two parties. Now it is possible to examine the output of the voting algorithm and see that indeed the algorithm works correctly.
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