成熟和引进先进航天器技术的定量方法

S. Cornford, L. Sarsfield
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引用次数: 41

摘要

今天,宇宙飞船的发展速度加快了。加速的一些压力来自预算的减少和政府提高效率的命令,并在更大程度上依赖商业系统和实践。然而,更重要的是,科技领域的新机遇推动了这一加速发展的步伐。未来的系统必须响应需求,以提供更高的分辨率、更强的响应能力,以及对互操作性增加的需求。此外,NASA被要求在不牺牲任务可靠性的情况下,以更短的时间和更低的成本部署系统。为了满足这些经常相互矛盾的要求,项目经理必须找到将先进技术注入航天器的新方法。因此,美国宇航局的大多数科学航天器都采用了前所未有的新技术。候选任务必须确定新的系统和组件,分析如何减轻与新设计相关的风险,并确定在NASA内部和外部转让由此产生的技术的方法。任何应用的技术注入都是一个复杂的过程。将未经验证的新设计合并到操作系统的开发中会带来巨大的成本、进度和技术风险。从历史上看,操作系统的开发人员在采用新技术时一直很谨慎。新的设计通常是独立于操作系统而成熟的,只有当它们证明了自己的勇气时才会上线。在对新技术作出承诺之前,演示或前体任务用于测试新设计。这通常是一个非常缓慢的过程;将一项技术从实验室转移到全面运行状态可能需要数年或数十年的时间。其结果是能力的逐步进化——一种将风险最小化的方法。有时需求的发展速度使演示程序不可能实现。当这种情况发生时,项目经理必须接受将复杂的新技术集成到可操作航天器的主流开发中的任务。用于协助项目经理完成这项任务的工具非常脆弱。例如,测量技术准备程度的技术是高度定性的。语言和文化在技术从实验室转移到应用程序中的重要性也被普遍低估了。本文关注这些问题,研究成熟技术的实践,特别强调在作战航天器系统开发过程中提高先进设计集成的方法。提出了一些简化的做法,这些做法可以提高在估计一项技术用于空间应用的准备情况时的准确性,并减少与此相关的风险。虽然这项工作的重点是与建造航天器相关的挑战,但作者认为,这里提出的实践可以更广泛地应用于其他市场。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Quantitative methods for maturing and infusing advanced spacecraft technology
Today, the pace of spacecraft development has accelerated. Some of the pressure to accelerate comes from reduced budgets and government mandates to improve efficiency and rely on a greater extent on commercial systems and practices. More importantly, however, the accelerating pace is driven by new opportunities in science and technology. Future systems must respond to requirements to deliver higher resolution, greater responsiveness, and the increased need for interoperability. Additionally, NASA is being asked to field systems in less time and less cost without sacrificing mission reliability. To meet these often contradictory requirements, project managers must find new ways to infuse advanced technologies into spacecraft. As a result, most of NASA's science spacecraft incorporate an unprecedented amount of new technology. Candidate missions must identify new systems and components, analyze how the risks associated with new designs are to be mitigated, and identify methods for transferring resultant technology within and outside of NASA. Technology infusion in any application is a complex process. Incorporating an unproven new design into the development of an operational system presents significant cost, schedule, and technical risk. Historically, developers of operational systems have been cautious when incorporating new technology. New designs are often matured independent of operational systems and brought online only when they have proven their mettle. Demonstrator or precursor missions are used to test new designs before the commitment to a new technology is made. This is usually a very slow process; it can take years or decades to move a technology from the laboratory to fully operational status. The result is a stepwise evolution of capability - an approach that minimizes risk. Sometimes requirements evolve at a pace where demonstrator programs are not possible. When this occurs, project managers must accept the task of integrating complex new technologies into the mainstream development of an operational spacecraft. The tools used to assist the project manager with this task are surprisingly fragile. Techniques for measuring the readiness of a technology, for example, are highly qualitative. The importance of the language and culture surrounding the transfer of a technology from the laboratory to the application program is also generally underestimated. This paper focuses on these issues, examining the practice of maturing technology with special emphasis on methods that improve the integration of advanced designs during the development of operational spacecraft systems. Simplified practices are presented that could improve the accuracy and reduce the risk associated with estimating the readiness of a technology for use in space applications. While This work focuses on the challenges associated with building spacecraft, the authors believe the practices presented here could have broader application to other markets.
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