对伊朗的制裁:新的国际背景下俄罗斯的教训

I. Timofeev, Yulia Sokolshchik, V. Morozov
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引用次数: 4

摘要

制裁压力的升级和对俄制裁范围的扩大,使人们认识到研究国际经验在应对限制性措施方面的重要性。本文论述了对伊朗实施制裁的特点,对伊朗经济的影响,以及伊朗适应西方国家制裁措施的机制和途径。作者确定了类型学上的相似之处,鉴于对伊朗经验的研究对俄罗斯具有重要意义,以及在理解俄罗斯在这一领域的能力方面值得注意的差异。伊朗几十年来一直受到制裁,对其实施了大规模和无数的限制。核协议只是在短时间内缓解了制裁压力,这证明了此类关于目标国做出让步以回应发起国解除限制的协议并不总是可持续的。根据分析结果,确定了对伊朗实施制裁的主要阶段。作者强调了针对能源和金融部门的制裁趋势及其不断收紧,以及越来越多的参与发起国联盟和联合国安理会对伊朗采取措施的决议。就外交政策影响而言,联合国安理会的制裁被视为严肃措施。此外,作者还揭示了伊朗在反对限制措施和使经济适应这些措施方面的政策的关键要素。与经济结构变化、社会领域的优化、利用制裁制度的不完善、国际伙伴的多样化有关的措施被列为这些组成部分。因此,尽管出发点不同,但伊朗适应制裁的经验对俄罗斯来说是成功和相关的。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Sanctions against Iran: Lessons for Russia in the new international context
The escalation of sanctions pressure and the expansion of the range of sanctions used against Russia provides for understanding the importance of studying international experience in countering restrictive measures. The article discusses the features of the application of sanctions against Iran, their impact on the economy of the state, as well as the mechanisms and ways of its adaptation to the restrictive measures of Western countries. The authors identify typological similarities, in view of which the study of the Iranian experience is significant for Russia, and differences that deserve attention in terms of understanding Russia’s capabilities in this area. Iran has been under sanctions for several decades, large-scale and numerous restrictions have been applied against it. The nuclear deal contributed to eased sanctions pressure for a short period only, proving that such agreements on concessions by the target country in response to the lifting of restrictions by the initiating states are not always sustainable. As a result of the analysis, the main stages of imposing sanctions against Iran are defined. The authors highlight the trend towards sanctions against the energy and financial sector and its constant tightening, as well as the increasing number of participants in the coalition of initiating countries and the UN Security Council resolution on measures against Iran. The UN Security Council sanctions are viewed as serious measures in terms of foreign policy implications. In addition, the authors reveal the key elements of Iran’s policy in the field of countering restrictive measures and adapting the economy to them. Measures related to structural changes in the economy, optimization of the social sphere, use of imperfection of sanctions regimes, diversification of international partners are indicated as such components. Thus, Iran’s experience in adapting to sanctions can rather be characterized as successful and relevant for Russia, despite the different starting positions.
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