瑞士的公共债务与经济增长

D. Lim, Michael Groschek
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摘要

经济理论表明,一个现实的借贷水平对发展中经济体和发达经济体实现可持续的经济增长水平都是有益的。然而,由于国内资源不足以资助经济进步所需的“发展项目”,大多数国家强烈依赖国内(国内)和外部(国际)资本,例如公共债务、外国直接投资和汇款。考虑到这一意义,本研究分析了公共债务、外国直接投资和汇款在加速瑞士经济增长方面的作用。为了实现这一目的,本研究收集了1997-2016年世界发展指标(WDI)的数据。该研究将公共债务、外国直接投资和汇款作为预测指标,而将经济增长作为结果变量。本研究采用自回归分布滞后(ARDL)模型对数据进行分析。研究结果表明,公共债务、外国直接投资和汇款对瑞士经济增长有积极的影响,这与经济学理论是一致的。根据调查结果,该研究建议制定和实施旨在吸引更多外国资本流入的政策,这将对长期经济增长作出积极贡献。该研究进一步建议瑞士政府将债务与GDP的比值保持在尽可能低的水平。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Public Debt and Economic Growth in Switzerland
Economic theory suggests that a realistic level of borrowing is beneficial for both developing and developed economies in achieving sustainable level of economic growth. However, as a result of insufficient domestic resources to fund the “development projects”, required for the economic progress, most of the countries strongly rely on internal (domestic) and external (international) capitals such as public debt, foreign direct investment (FDI) and remittances. Keeping in mind this significance, this study analyzes the role of public debt, FDI and remittances in accelerating the economic growth in Switzerland. For getting this purpose achieved, the study gathers the data from world development indicators (WDI) for the period of 1997-2016. The study uses public debt, FDI and remittances as predictors, while economic growth is taken as outcome variable. The study applies auto regressive distributive lag (ARDL) model to analyze the data. Results of the study show positive influence of public debt, FDI and remittances on the economic growth of Switzerland which is in line with the economic theory. Based on the findings, the study suggests articulating and implementing policies aimed at attracting more inflows of foreign capital that will positively contribute to economic growth in the long run. The study furthers the government of Switzerland to keep debts to the GDP threshold as low as possible.
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