应对韩国的长期财政挑战

M. Syed, Michael Skaarup, Tarhan N. Feyzioğlu
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引用次数: 6

摘要

韩国正处于前所未有的人口结构变化的边缘。在未来几十年里,快速老龄化将使日本从经合组织中最年轻的人口之一,转变为有史以来最年长的人口之一。反过来,这种转变将给养老金制度、健康和长期护理支出带来巨大压力。本文评估了人口老龄化对韩国长期财政状况的影响,并利用国际货币基金组织的全球财政模型评估了潜在的政策应对措施。本文发现,保持良好的长期财政状况的关键是尽早采取行动,并使用一系列政策工具,包括养老金改革、扩大税基(必要时加息)、改善税收管理和一些支出再分配。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Addressing Korea's Long-Term Fiscal Challenges
Korea is on the verge of an unprecedented demographic shift. In coming decades, rapid aging will transform it from one of the youngest populations in the OECD to among the oldest in record time. In turn, this shift will put tremendous pressure on the pension system and health and long-term care expenditures. This paper evaluates the impact of population aging on the long-term fiscal position in Korea, and assesses potential policy responses using the IMF's Global Fiscal Model. The paper finds that the key to maintaining a sound long-run fiscal position is to act early and with a range of policy tools, including pension reform, tax base broadening (and, if necessary, rate hikes), improved tax administration and some expenditure reallocation.
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