“我们自找的”:2016年的“通俄门”及其余波被重新审视

Eric B. Shiraev
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摘要

本文考察了对一个复杂案件的反应,该案件涉及一系列在美国被称为俄罗斯干预2016年美国大选的事态发展。本文论述了“通俄门”的主要发展或政治后果。首先,一些政治家,主要在俄罗斯,但只有少数在西方,坚持认为没有干预或干涉。其次,在其他评论员(尤其是西方评论员)看来,干预美国大选确实发生了。然而,对其他人来说,问题不一定是关于2016年的干预行为,而是关于唐纳德·特朗普和莫斯科的一些特工之间的“勾结”,以及他们试图“掩盖”彼此的非法事务。这是第三个发展。在这些政策叙事的背景下,本文的结论是指国际关系中的“我们咎由自取”现象。“通俄门”成为了两个国家首都的政治叙事中随手可得的主题。莫斯科方面一直认为,这起案件完全是捏造的,并受到华盛顿反俄情绪的推动。在美国,毫无疑问,俄罗斯已经干预了选举,而且还会再次干预。双方都利用此案来推进各自的战略国内外交政策叙事。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
“We had it coming”: The 2016 Russiagate and its aftermath revisited
This paper examines the reactions to a complex case involving a series of developments labeled in the United States as Russia’s meddling in the 2016 American elections. The paper addresses major developments or political fallouts of Russiagate . First, some politicians, mostly in Russia but only few in the West, insisted that there has been no meddling or interference. Second, to other commentators, especially in the West, the meddling with US elections indeed took place. Yet to others, and this is the third development, the problem was not necessarily about the act of the 2016 meddling, but rather about the following “collusion” between Donald Trump and some Moscow’s operatives, on the other, and their attempts to “cover up” their mutual illegal affairs. In the context of these policy narratives, this paper’s conclusion refers to the “We had it coming” phenomenon in international relations. The Russiagate became a subject conveniently fitted in the political narratives of both national capitals. In Moscow the belief has been that this case had been totally fabricated and fueled by anti-Russian sentiments in Washington. In the United States, there is little doubt that Russia has meddled with the elections and would do it again. Both sides used the case to advance their strategic domestic foreign policy narratives.
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