达到稳定状态的数值模拟:不需要产生任何理性预期

Taiji Harashima
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引用次数: 0

摘要

用数值模拟方法模拟通往稳定状态的路径并不容易,因为在家庭行为产生理性预期的动态经济增长模型中,不存在封闭形式的解决方案。相反,如果按照以“最大舒适度”为基础的程序,就很容易。在这样的模拟中,一个家庭根据简单的公式增加或减少其消费。在本文中,我模拟了家庭在基于mdc的程序下的行为路径,模拟结果表明,家庭可以根据他们的感受和对他们的偏好和整个经济状态的猜测,很容易达到一个稳定(稳定)的状态,而不会产生任何理性预期。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Numerical Simulations of Reaching a Steady State: No Need to Generate Any Rational Expectations
It is not easy to numerically simulate the path to a steady state because there is no closed form solution in dynamic economic growth models in which households behave generating rational expectations. In contrast, it is easy if households are supposed to behave under the MDC (maximum degree of comfortability)-based procedure. In such a simulation, a household increases or decreases its consumption according to simple formulae. In this paper, I simulate the path when households behave under the MDC-based procedure, and the results of simulations indicate that households can easily reach a stabilized (steady) state without generating any rational expectations by behaving according to their feelings and guesses about their preferences and the state of the entire economy. 
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