东欧国家与格鲁吉亚货币政策比较分析

Tsitsino Dzotsenidze
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引用次数: 0

摘要

研究的相关性:中央银行通过在自由金融市场中使用适当的工具来改变货币供应量,从而对经济施加影响。这些工具的组合为我们提供了国家银行的操作框架。研究目的:研究格鲁吉亚、摩尔多瓦和黑山三国货币政策调控的工具(操作框架),找出问题并寻找解决方法。研究方法:采用比较分析法,基于格鲁吉亚国家银行、Geostat和国际货币基金组织的数据库。格鲁吉亚的货币政策制度和手段对该国的宏观经济指标,如通货膨胀和国内生产总值增长率的影响。分析摩尔多瓦和黑山的宏观经济参数、货币政策制度和管制工具。比较分析了格鲁吉亚、摩尔多瓦和黑山三国货币政策的运行框架及存在问题的解决途径。货币政策只会改变未来的通胀前景,而央行会对一次性外生因素做出反应,当这些因素非常强大,足以反映长期通胀预期时。因此,进一步收紧货币政策(已经收紧)将导致GDP增长放缓和失业率下降。根据目前的预测,2022年的通货膨胀率将保持在高位。鉴于临时和外生因素在通货膨胀中的作用仍有待确定,而货币政策仍处于紧缩阶段,国家银行决定维持目前的利率水平。然而,面对强劲的供应冲击,通胀进一步上升的威胁仍然存在。在这些通胀风险的背景下,货币政策收紧或利率上调可能仍在预期之中。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF MONETARY POLICY OF EASTERN EUROPEAN COUNTRIES AND GEORGIA
Relevance of the study: Central banks exert their influence on the economy by changing the money supply using appropriate instruments in a free financial market. The combination of these tools gives us the operational framework of the National Bank. Aim of the research: to study the instruments (operational framework) of monetary policy regulation of Georgia, Moldova and Montenegro, to identify problems and to find ways to solve them. Research Methods: Use of comparative analysis method based on the database of the National Bank of Georgia, Geostat and the International Monetary Fund. The impact of Georgia's monetary policy regime and instruments on the country's macroeconomic indicators, such as inflation and GDP growth rates. Analysis of the macroeconomic parameters, monetary policy regime and regulatory instruments of Moldova and Montenegro. Comparative analysis of the operational framework of the monetary policy of Georgia, Moldova and Montenegro and ways to solve the identified problems. Monetary policy only changes the future outlook for inflation, and central banks respond to one-time exogenous factors when those factors are so strong that they reflect long-term inflation expectations. Therefore, further tightening of monetary policy (already tightened) will lead to a slowdown in GDP growth and unemployment. According to current forecasts, the inflation rate in 2022 will remain high. Given that the role of temporary and exogenous factors in inflation remains to be determined, while monetary policy is still in a tightening phase, the National Bank has decided to maintain the current level of interest rates. However, in the face of strong supply shocks, the threat of further growth in inflation is still relevant. Against the background of these inflationary risks, a tightening of monetary policy or an increase in interest rates is probably still expected.
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