复杂经济系统绩效的整体评价与预测技术

2020 10th International Conference on Advanced Computer Information Technologies (ACIT) Pub Date : 2020-09-01 DOI:10.1109/ACIT49673.2020.9208851

V. Stepashko, R. Voloschuk, S. Yefimenko

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引用次数: 3

摘要

描述了解决综合(复合)评估和预测复杂经济系统性能问题的技术的主要阶段和组成部分，以支持基于聚合和因此可观察的信息做出有效的管理决策。本文介绍了构建综合积分指标任务中的三个创新点:对一个主要经济指标的值进行某种模糊解释;在此基础上提出了一种非线性指标归一化方法;预测指数的方法。最后给出了一个应用该技术对乌克兰投资活动进行分析和预测的实例。

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A Technique for Integral Evaluation and Forecast of the Performance of a Complex Economic System

The main stages and components of a technology to solve problems of integrated (composite) evaluating and forecasting the performance of a complex economical system are described to support making efficient managerial decisions based on an aggregate and therefore observable information. We introduce the three novelties in the task of construction the synthetic integral index: some kind of fuzzy interpretation of values of a primary economic indicator; based on it a nonlinear method for normalizing indicators; approach to forecasting the index. An example of using the technology to analysis and forecast of the investment activity in Ukraine is presented.

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2020 10th International Conference on Advanced Computer Information Technologies (ACIT)

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