苏丹分数阶登革热动态流行的数值分析

Fathelrhman EL Guma, O. Badawy, Mohammed Berir, Mohamed A. Abdoon
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引用次数: 1

摘要

本工作的主要思想是对苏丹登革热疫情的分数阶动力学进行数值模拟和稳定性分析。本研究使用基于Adams-Bashforth方法的计算机技术,对苏丹的分数阶登革热流行进行数值解析。数值稳定性和动态稳定性分析表明,分数阶登革热模型对这些参数的初始条件很敏感。因此,这些参数的值对于确定有多少人会从疾病中恢复,有多少人会生病至关重要。所提出的方法有效地说明了在很长一段时间内解决方案的动态,这对于准确预测登革热在苏丹的传播至关重要。此外,该方法可用于评估各种干预战略的效力,并为旨在减轻苏丹登革热负担的公共卫生政策提供信息。它还可以帮助确定最易受登革热侵扰的地区,并确定疾病控制资源的优先次序。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Numerical Analysis of Fractional-Order Dynamic Dengue Disease Epidemic in Sudan
The main idea of this work is numerical simulation and stability analysis for the fractional-order dynamics of the dengue disease outbreak in Sudan. This research uses a computer technique based on the Adams-Bashforth approach to numerically resolve a fractional-order dengue epidemic in Sudan. Analyses of numerical and dynamic stability show that the fractional-order dengue fever model is sensitive to initial conditions for those parameters. Therefore, the parameters’ values are critical in establishing how many individuals will get better from their sickness and how many will become ill. The proposed method is effective in providing an illustration of the solution’s dynamics over a very long horizon of time, which is crucial for making accurate predictions about the spread of dengue in Sudan. In addition, this method can be utilized to assess the efficacy of various intervention strategies and inform public health policies aimed at reducing the burden of dengue fever in Sudan. It can also assist in identifying areas most susceptible to dengue infestations and prioritizing disease control resources.
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