电力系统可再生能源发电与负荷组合预测方法

Zheming Wen, Yong Li, Yi Tan, Yijia Cao, Shiming Tian
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引用次数: 4

摘要

准确预测“净负荷”,即可再生能源发电与负荷之间的差异,对电力系统的经济安全调度具有重要意义。当然,确保足够水平的辅助服务,特别是监管服务是非常重要的。以前,风电、光伏发电和负荷是分别预测的。相比之下,本文提出了一种不考虑市场结构(集中规划/调度与市场结果)的风电、光伏和负荷的直接自适应组合预测方法。与支持向量机(SVM)等传统预测方法相比,该方法可以在线调整模型参数,提高预测精度。对比分析了风电、光伏和负荷独立预测模型、离线组合预测模型和本文方法。结果表明,该方法能够自适应可再生能源的波动,提高了预测的准确性。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
A combined forecasting method for renewable generations and loads in power systems
Accurate forecasting for "net load", i.e., the difference between the renewable generations and loads, are important for economical and secure dispatch of power systems. Of course, it is significant to ensure sufficient levels of ancillary service, in particular regulation service. Previously, wind power, photovoltaic generation (PV) and loads are forecasted separately. In contrast, in this paper, a direct and adaptive combined forecasting method is proposed for wind power, PV and load which is regardless of market structure (centralized planning/dispatch vs. market outcomes). Compared with the traditional forecasting methods such as support vector machine (SVM), it can online adjust model parameters to improve the forecasting accuracy. A contrastive analysis is performed between the separate forecasting model for wind power, PV and load, the offline combined forecasting model and the proposed approach. The results show that the proposed method can be self-adaptive to the fluctuation of renewable energy and is able to make the forecasting more accurate.
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