Social Media, U.S. Presidential Campaigns, and Public Opinion Polls: Disentangling Effects

The use of digital technologies by political campaigns has been a topic of scholarly concern for over two decades. However, these studies have been mostly focused on analyzing the use of digital platforms without considering contextual factors of the race, like public opinion polling data. Polling data is an important information source for both citizens and candidates, and provides the latter with information that might drive strategic communication. In this paper, we explore the relationship between the use of social media in the 2016 U.S. Presidential Elections and candidates' standing in public opinion polls focusing on the surfacing and primary stages of the campaign. We are also interested in understanding whether candidates use Twitter and Facebook in similar ways. We used automated content analysis to categorize social media posts from all 21 Republican and Democratic candidates that ran for president in 2016. Specifically, we are interested in observing whether a candidate's performance in the polls drives certain communicative strategies, such as the use of attacks and messages of advocacy, as well as the focus on personal image or policy issues.