Motor Outstanding Claims

A Report with the above title, which forms Section B of this paper, was presented at the conference at Hythe, Kent in September 1977 of the General Insurance Study Group, which is sponsored jointly by the Institute and the Faculty. The conference was attended by about sixty people, nearly all non-life practitioners and nearly all actuaries. Previous papers on technical reserves had discussed various statistical methods of estimating outstanding claim reserves, and in some cases had included some data to provide numerical examples of the use of the methods. In our report we chose to start with some data and to look at the degree of stability in those data. Inspection of the data showed remarkably stable patterns and it was apparent that a simple method not previously described based on average payments was likely to be satisfactory for estimating the reserve for outstanding claims. The report then seeks to explain why the authors consider that this method has advantages over two well-known but more complicated methods.