外债对经济增长的影响——以埃及为例

نهى عبدالفتاح موسى
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引用次数: 0

摘要

无论是发达国家还是发展中国家,无论是债权国还是债务国,外债问题都是当今世界各国面临的最关键问题之一。与所有发展中国家一样,埃及从上世纪90年代初开始就一直饱受债务问题的困扰。按照国际标准,埃及的债务开始超过安全限度,达到货物和服务出口总额的25.5%。因此,本研究旨在通过ARDL模型考察埃及外债与经济增长之间的关系,并指出1996-2019年期间的影响。研究表明,外债对gdp ppc有负面影响,在短期内,每增加1%就会导致gdp ppc下降0.12%。此外,从长期来看,ED/GDP与GDPPC之间的关系并不显著,研究人员建议埃及必须将新的和潜在的债务引导到投资中,从而实现所需的外部援助,以减轻公共预算的压力。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
The Impact of External Debt on Economic Growth the Case of Egypt
The external Debt problem is one of the most crucial problems that face the whole world’s countries nowadays, either developed or developing countries, creditor or debtor countries. Egypt has been suffering from the debt issue throughout the country’s modern history from the beginning of the 1990s like all developing countries. According to international standards, Egypt started to exceed the safe limits and reach 25.5% of debt to the total exports of goods and services. Consequently, the study aims at investigating the relationship between external debt and economic growth in Egypt and pointing out the impacts within the period (1996-2019) by adopting ARDL Model. The research reveals the external debt has a negative impact on GDPPC where every 1% increase leads to a 0.12%decrease in GDPPC in the short term. Besides, the insignificant relationship between ED/GDP and GDPPC in the long term the researcher suggests that Egypt must direct new and potential debts to investment so that the desired external assistance is achieved to reduce pressure on the public budget.
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