Landslides Susceptibility Analysis in Blumenau, Southern Brazil: a Probabilistic Approach

The landslides refer to processes involving material detachment. The mobilization takes place over one or more landslide plans. The rupture surfaces may develop with different geometries and in different depths, as well as involve different types of unconsolidated materials [Cruden and Varnes 1996 ; Augusto Filho and Virgili 1998 ; Dikau 2004 ; Fiori and Carmignani 2009]. The natural outbreak of these phenomena alongside the Brazilian Atlantic coast is strongly bounded to intense rainfall episodes [Wolle and Pedrosa 1981 ; Ahrendt 2005 ; Vedovello and Macedo 2007]. The instabilities mainly manifest in hydric conversion zones where the regolith mantle reaches its maximum thickness, according to the critical slope limit imposed by the local dynamic balance relations [Matsushi et al . 2006 ; Fiori and Carmignani 2009]. The mobilized material may result in mass runs when there is enough water and when the topography favors the convergence of debris in the natural flowing channels ; thus, amplifying its direct and indirect effects [Cruden and Varnes 1996, Dikau 2004, Matsushi et al . 2006]. The susceptibility analysis allows identifying the potential occurrence of the phenomenon, and the analysis may be conducted through empirical models Original Article