中国上市商业银行杠杆计量与跨国比较

Yuxin Lin, M. Cheng, Kengfung Wong, Ho Jacko Cheung
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摘要

本研究以《巴塞尔协议III》的规定和银监会颁布的《商业银行杠杆管理办法》为基础,对中国15家上市商业银行的杠杆率、不良贷款率等各项风险指标进行了测量,并对金融危机后几家国外商业银行的同类数据进行了比较。银行不良贷款率数据显示,2011 - 2015年,中国主要商业银行的不良贷款率呈上升趋势。主要外资商业银行的比例在金融危机期间大幅上升,但在金融危机之后有所下降。通过对比国内外的不良贷款趋势,我们发现中国的不良贷款趋势与金融危机前夕的美国相似。从银行杠杆数据来看,现阶段中国国内大多数银行的杠杆水平仍处于审慎监管之下,尽管有几家银行存在杠杆过高的情况。然而,由于监管套利的普遍存在,部分业务并没有根据实际风险反映在银行的外部和内部资产中。因此,官方数据可能低估了银行业的实际杠杆率。一个重要的因素是影子银行的快速发展。宏观审慎监管政策正处于实施的初始阶段,有望在未来控制中国商业银行的风险。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Leverage Measurement and Multinational Comparison of Listed Commercial Banks in China
Based on the provisions of Basel III and the Method for Leverage Management of Commercial Banks promulgated by China Banking Regulatory Commission, this study measured various risk indicators such as leverage and non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 15 listed commercial banks in China and compared the same type of data from several foreign commercial banks after the financial crisis. According to the NPL ratio data of the banks, the NPL ratios of major commercial banks in China were on an upward trend from 2011 to 2015. The ratio of major foreign commercial banks rose significantly during the financial crisis but declined after that. By comparing the trend of non-performing loans at home and abroad, we find that the trend of non-performing loans in China is similar to the eve of the financial crisis in the United States.According to bank leverage data, the level of leverage of most domestic banks in China at this stage is still under prudential regulation, though over-leverage exists in several banks. However, due to the widespread regulatory arbitrage, some of the businesses are not reflected in the bank's external and internal assets according to the actual risks. As a result, the official data may underestimate the real leverage of the banking industry.An important factor is the rapid development of shadow banking. The macro-prudential supervision policy is in its initial stage of implementation and is expected to control the risks of commercial banks in China in the future.
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