Financial Globalization or Great Financial Expansion? The Impact of Capital Flows on Credit and Banking Crises

This paper empirically examines the impact of capital flows on credit growth, credit excesses and banking crises using quarterly panel data from 43 advanced (AEs) and emerging market economies (EMEs). Regressions show that gross capital inflows precede credit growth and credit excesses. Both gross inflows and high private domestic credit precede banking crises. Formalized hypotheses allow us to study whether domestic or international drivers more frequently precede banking crises, and thus to evaluate "financial globalization" and the "great financial expansion" as explanations for country vulnerability to banking crises. Our evidence provides support for both narratives as drivers of country vulnerability; financial globalization seems to matter particularly for EMEs. We also provide some ground for caution on the effectiveness of capital controls and the desirability of very high levels of private credit to GDP.