马尼拉大都会区车辆存活率分析

M. Rith, J. Soliman, A. Fillone, J. B. M. Biona, N. S. Lopez
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引用次数: 0

摘要

菲律宾首都马尼拉地区的车辆数量领先于所有地区,强制车辆报废标准尚未实施。本文旨在利用威布尔分布函数和在陆路交通局(LTO)登记的车辆数据,开发马尼拉大都会的车辆存活率。提出了一种新的计算方法来计算不执行报废标准的城市车辆的存续率和报废率。车辆主要分为三种类型:轿车、多功能车(UV)和公共汽车。结果表明,目前汽车、紫外线和客车的平均寿命分别为14.225、13.929和11.529年。利用已开发的车辆存活率计算报废率和累积报废率,对马尼拉大都会的车辆数量和报废强度的预测提供了非常有用的信息,此外,本文提出的计算程序对于没有车辆报废强度和车辆按年龄分布数据的其他国家的车辆存活率的开发具有重要意义。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Analysis of Vehicle Survival Rates for Metro-Manila
Metro Manila, the national capital region of the Philippines, has led all regions in vehicle fleet and a compulsory vehicle scrappage standard has yet to be implemented. This paper aims to develop Metro Manila’s vehicle survival rates, using the Weibull Distribution function and the data of vehicles registered in the Land Transport Office (LTO). A novel computation procedure is proposed how to develop the vehicle survival and scrappage rates for a metropolis not implementing the scrappage standard. The vehicles are classified into main three types: car, utility vehicle (UV) and bus. The results highlighted that the current average life spans for car, UV and bus are 14.225, 13.929 and 11.529 years, respectively. The developed vehicle survival rates were used to calculate the scrappage rates and the cumulative scrappage rates, being very informative for projection of Metro Manila’s vehicle fleet and scrappage intensity, and beyond that the computation procedure proposed in this paper is considerably important to develop vehicle survival rates for other countries having no data of vehicle scrappage intensity and distribution of vehicles by age.
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