{"title":"重复通勤驾驶周期数据集及其在短期车速预测中的应用","authors":"Yuan Liu, J. Zhang","doi":"10.1115/1.4052996","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"\n Vehicle velocity forecasting plays a critical role in operation scheduling of varying systems and devices for a passenger vehicle. The forecasted information serves as an indispensable prerequisite for vehicle energy management via predictive control algorithms or vehicle ecosystem control Co-design. This paper first generates a repeated urban driving cycle dataset at a fixed route in the Dallas area, aiming to simulate a daily commuting route and serves as a base for further energy management study. To explore the dynamic properties, these driving cycles are piecewise divided into cycle segments via intersection/stop identification. A vehicle velocity forecasting model pool is then developed for each segment, including the hidden Markov chain model, long short-term memory network, artificial neural network, support vector regression, and similarity methods. To further improve the forecasting performance, higher-level algorithms like localized model selection, ensemble approaches, and a combination of them are investigated and compared. Results show that (i) the segment-based forecast improves the forecasting accuracy by up to 20.1%, compared to the whole cycle-based forecast; and (ii) the hybrid localized model framework that combines dynamic model selection and an ensemble approach could further improve the accuracy by 9.7%. Moreover, the potential of leveraging the stopping location at an intersection to estimate the waiting time is also evaluated in this study.","PeriodicalId":164923,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Autonomous Vehicles and Systems","volume":"92 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2021-11-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"2","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"A Repeated Commuting Driving Cycle Dataset with Application to Short-term Vehicle Velocity Forecasting\",\"authors\":\"Yuan Liu, J. Zhang\",\"doi\":\"10.1115/1.4052996\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"\\n Vehicle velocity forecasting plays a critical role in operation scheduling of varying systems and devices for a passenger vehicle. The forecasted information serves as an indispensable prerequisite for vehicle energy management via predictive control algorithms or vehicle ecosystem control Co-design. This paper first generates a repeated urban driving cycle dataset at a fixed route in the Dallas area, aiming to simulate a daily commuting route and serves as a base for further energy management study. To explore the dynamic properties, these driving cycles are piecewise divided into cycle segments via intersection/stop identification. A vehicle velocity forecasting model pool is then developed for each segment, including the hidden Markov chain model, long short-term memory network, artificial neural network, support vector regression, and similarity methods. To further improve the forecasting performance, higher-level algorithms like localized model selection, ensemble approaches, and a combination of them are investigated and compared. Results show that (i) the segment-based forecast improves the forecasting accuracy by up to 20.1%, compared to the whole cycle-based forecast; and (ii) the hybrid localized model framework that combines dynamic model selection and an ensemble approach could further improve the accuracy by 9.7%. Moreover, the potential of leveraging the stopping location at an intersection to estimate the waiting time is also evaluated in this study.\",\"PeriodicalId\":164923,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of Autonomous Vehicles and Systems\",\"volume\":\"92 1\",\"pages\":\"0\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2021-11-12\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"2\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of Autonomous Vehicles and Systems\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1115/1.4052996\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Autonomous Vehicles and Systems","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1115/1.4052996","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
A Repeated Commuting Driving Cycle Dataset with Application to Short-term Vehicle Velocity Forecasting
Vehicle velocity forecasting plays a critical role in operation scheduling of varying systems and devices for a passenger vehicle. The forecasted information serves as an indispensable prerequisite for vehicle energy management via predictive control algorithms or vehicle ecosystem control Co-design. This paper first generates a repeated urban driving cycle dataset at a fixed route in the Dallas area, aiming to simulate a daily commuting route and serves as a base for further energy management study. To explore the dynamic properties, these driving cycles are piecewise divided into cycle segments via intersection/stop identification. A vehicle velocity forecasting model pool is then developed for each segment, including the hidden Markov chain model, long short-term memory network, artificial neural network, support vector regression, and similarity methods. To further improve the forecasting performance, higher-level algorithms like localized model selection, ensemble approaches, and a combination of them are investigated and compared. Results show that (i) the segment-based forecast improves the forecasting accuracy by up to 20.1%, compared to the whole cycle-based forecast; and (ii) the hybrid localized model framework that combines dynamic model selection and an ensemble approach could further improve the accuracy by 9.7%. Moreover, the potential of leveraging the stopping location at an intersection to estimate the waiting time is also evaluated in this study.