E. Gün, Ebru Yüksel Haliloğlu
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摘要

TIMEX 是跟踪土耳其出口公司证券交易所表现的指数。本研究评估了 TIMEX 指数与宏观经济变量(即利率、汇率、通货膨胀率)之间的关系:Türkiye İhracatçılar Meclisi İhracat Endeksi (TIMEX) Üzerine Bir Analiz" isimli yüksek lisans tezinden türetilmiştir.** E-Mail: gun.furkan@yahoo.com, ORCID: 0000-0002-9942-0093 *** Doç.Dr. Gazi Üniversitesi, Mühendislik Fakültesi, Endüstri Mühendisliği Bölümü, E-Mail: ebruyuksel@gazi.edu.tr, ORCID: 0000-0001-8267-0339 Emrullah Furkan GÜN - Ebru YÜKSEL HALİLOĞLU 458 利用 2013:2 至 2019:1 的月度数据计算通货膨胀、汇率、工业生产和出口量。首先,采用 ARDL 约束模型对所有变量进行协整分析。结果表明,从长期来看,TIMEX 与利率、出口量、工业生产和美元兑土耳其里拉汇率之间存在协整关系。在长期分析中,我们的模型还显示出快速的调整速度,48% 的均衡偏差在一个月内得到纠正。此外,我们发现 TIMEX 与工业生产指数存在格兰杰原因,这意味着 TIMEX 可用作跟踪工业生产的先行指标。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
SERMAYE PİYASALARI VE MAKROEKONOMİK GÖRÜNÜM: İHRACATÇI ŞİRKETLER ÜZERİNE BİR ANALİZ
TIMEX is an index, which tracks the stock exchange performance of Turkish exporter companies. This study evaluates the relationship between TIMEX and the macroeconomic variables—i.e. interest rate, * Bu çalışma, Emrullah Furkan GÜN’ün TOBB Ekonomi ve Teknoloji Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü’nde 2019 yılında hazırlanan “İhracatçı Şirketlerin Menkul Kıymetler Borsa Performanslarının Değerlendirilmesi: Türkiye İhracatçılar Meclisi İhracat Endeksi (TIMEX) Üzerine Bir Analiz” isimli yüksek lisans tezinden türetilmiştir. ** E-Mail: gun.furkan@yahoo.com, ORCID: 0000-0002-9942-0093 *** Doç. Dr. Gazi Üniversitesi, Mühendislik Fakültesi, Endüstri Mühendisliği Bölümü, E-Mail: ebruyuksel@gazi.edu.tr, ORCID: 0000-0001-8267-0339 Emrullah Furkan GÜN • Ebru YÜKSEL HALİLOĞLU 458 inflation, exchange rate, industrial production, and export volume using monthly data from 2013:2 to 2019:1. First, an ARDL bound model is employed to conduct a cointegration analysis among all of the included variables. The results indicate a cointegration relationship between the TIMEX and the interest rate, export volume, industrial production and US Dollar/TL exchange rate, in the long-term. Our model also showed a rapid speed of adjustment in the long-term analysis where 48% of the deviation from the equilibrium is corrected within a one-month period. Moreover, we found that TIMEX Granger causes the industrial production index, which means that TIMEX can be used as a leading indicator to track industrial production.
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