基于可变模糊综合评判法的山洪灾害脆弱性分析 Vulnerability Assessment of Torrent Flood Disasters Based on Variable Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method

山洪灾害脆弱性是指人们抵抗和应对洪灾的能力以及在遭受洪灾后从不利影响中恢复的能力。本文综合考虑哈尔滨市水文指标及经济发展现状，选取12项灾害脆弱性指标，采用层次分析法确定指标权重，建立可变模糊综合评判模型，对哈尔滨的12个县(市、区)进行山洪灾害脆弱性综合评价。建立的模型考虑了评价标准区间值对评价结果的影响并进行了四组组合参数下的综合评价，提高了脆弱性评价结果的可信度和可靠性，对哈尔滨市山洪灾害减灾抗灾具有现实意义。 The vulnerability of mountain torrents refers to the ability of people to resist and cope with floods and the ability to recover from adverse effects after suffering from floods. In this paper, the variable fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model is established by comprehensively considering the hydrological indi-cators and economic development of Harbin. The comprehensive evaluation of the vulnerability of mountain flood disaster of 12 counties (cities, district) are carried out by selecting 12 disaster vulnera-bility indicators, and using the analytic hierarchy process to determine the index weights. The variable fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method takes into account the influence of the evaluation standard in-terval value on the evaluation results and carries out the comprehensive evaluation under the four com-binations of parameters to improve the credibility and reliability of the vulnerability assessment results, which has practical significance.