领导者还是孤独者?金砖国家及其地区如何在联大投票

Renan Holanda Montenegro, Rafael Mesquita
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引用次数: 6

摘要

所谓的新兴大国,包括金砖国家(巴西、俄罗斯、印度、中国和南非),通常把自己标榜为所在地区的天然领导者。尽管幅员辽阔赋予了它们地区大国的地位,但它们作为领导者的角色取决于其潜在追随者的共识接受程度。那么是否可以肯定,受金砖国家影响的国家的立场是趋同的?金砖五国能否被视为各自地区的实际领导者?本文将通过分析金砖国家及其区域伙伴在联合国大会上的行为来回答这些问题。研究设计复制了Voeten(2013)的数据,以比较1992年至2014年金砖国家及其所在地区在联合国大会投票中的平均亲和力。数据显示,与俄罗斯和印度相比,巴西、中国和南非的地区凝聚力水平较高。这些发现证实了有关巴西和南非的文献,但与有关俄罗斯、印度和中国地区领导地位的文献存在冲突。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Leaders or Loners? How Do the BRICS Countries and their Regions Vote in the UN General Assembly
The so-called emerging powers, including the BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa), typically present themselves as natural leaders of their regions. Although physical size confers them the status of regional powers, their role as leaders depends on the consensual acceptance of their would-be followers. Can it be affirmed then that the countries under the influence of the BRICS show convergent positions? Can the five BRICS be considered de facto leaders of their regions? This article sets out to answer these questions by analysing the behaviour of the BRICS and their regional partners in the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA). The research design replicates the data from Voeten (2013) in order to compare the average affinity between each of the BRICS countries and their regions in the votes of the UNGA from 1992 to 2014. The data indicate a high level of regional cohesion for Brazil, China and South Africa when compared to Russia and India. The findings corroborate the literature in relation to Brazil and South Africa but conflict with what has been produced on the regional leadership of Russia, India and China.
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