Research on Certain Type Equipment Failure Intervals Forecasting Based on Gray-Markov Model

Exact prediction of condition based maintenance intervals can provide evidence that equipment support personnel draft maintenance plan, which in favor of enhance army combat readiness level and availability. Since it is difficult to construct a precise model for predicting the equipment failure intervals, a predicting method based on grey synthetic model was proposed to improve the accuracy of failure intervals prediction. Firstly, according to characteristic of less sample and poor data of certain type equipment failure intervals, the failure’s stages and properties were simplified and reasonable modeling background was formed. Then gray mode and Gray-Marko synthetic model were respectively built up to estimate the equipment failure intervals. Finally, the error between predictive value and true value was acquired and the time of the next failure was basically determined based on the predictive value. The case demonstrated that in the case of limited sample data, it is feasible and effective to reduce the predicting error and improve the predict precision by selecting gray synthetic predicting model adaptable to the predicted data attributes according to the characteristics of different fault phases. The predicting results can be used by equipment support crew for making scientific maintenance plan, which can be benefit to maintain equipment availability rate.