Assessing the Efficacy of Covid-19 Policies in the Philippines

This research assessed the efficacy of the Philippine government’s COVID-19 policies by calculating the regional and national effective reproduction number (Rt) after the implementation of government policies. Rt was obtained through using a model with a Bayesian framework, which is an approach that creates probabilistic models based on existing evidence. The model, known as “EpiEstim”, provides estimates through analyzing the daily incidence of cases within predefined time periods. The effects of stringency on nationwide transmissibility were determined by analyzing the bi-variate relationship between the Government Stringency Index (OxCGRT) with the estimated nationwide Rt values, between February 6, 2020 and March 3, 2021. This study is relevant because the Philippine government’s response to COVID-19 is known to be one of the most prolonged and stringent approaches to the pandemic, and a quantitative measure of the efficacy of the government’s policies can help determine whether these approaches can mitigate the impact of outbreaks in the future. Regionally, the implementation of government policies has led subsequent Rt values to approximately return to the critical threshold of 1.0 in 10 out of the 16 dates tested. These Rt values ranged between 0.82 and 3.05. Nationally, the level of stringency approximates a negative correlation with transmissibility, most notably between March 6, 2020 and April 6, 2020. Many of the government’s policies can be considered as delayed responses as they were implemented several days after Rt first deviated from the critical threshold of 1.0.