Pathogen Emergence As Complex Biological Invasion: Lessons From Dynamical Systems Modeling

Infectious disease emergence has become the target of cross-disciplinary efforts that aim to understand and predict the shape of outbreaks. The many challenges involved with the prediction of disease emergence events is a characteristic that in- fectious diseases share with biological invasions in many subfields of ecology (e.g., how certain plants are able to successfully invade a new niche). Like infectious diseases, biological invasions by plants and animals involve interactions between agents (pathogens and plants in their respective cases) and a recipient niche. In this study, we examine the problem of pathogen emergence through the lens of a framework first developed for the study of plant invasions, restructured to apply to pathogen invaders. We utilize mathematical techniques to examine how com- plex dynamics emerge between the various actors in a multi-component pathogen invasion process, which implies invasion frameworks can offer new insight on the particulars of infectious disease emergence. Summarizing, we consider these re- sults in context of their application to epidemiology, and more broadly with regards to modern efforts to bring the vernacular of complex systems to more real-world systems and problems. In doing so, we demonstrate the potential power in math- ematizing conceptual models, and connecting ideas across disparate fields, toward a more rigorous picture of the nuances that underlie the dynamics of biological systems