另类投资在动荡时期的动态关系比较

Karolina Siemaszkiewicz
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摘要

与俄罗斯入侵乌克兰一样,冠状病毒大流行对许多金融市场和资产价格产生了重大影响。后者还导致了金融市场的大幅波动。在本文中,我们试图比较避险资产在动荡时期的表现,例如最近的全球金融危机、欧元区债务危机、COVID-19大流行和俄罗斯对乌克兰的侵略。我们研究了捷克共和国、法国、德国、英国、波兰、斯洛伐克、西班牙等欧洲国家的指数与黄金、白银、布伦特原油、WTI原油、美元、瑞士法郎和比特币等流行工具之间的动态关系。本文分别对DCC模型和CCC模型的参数进行估计,比较上述股票市场与金融工具之间的动态关系。结果表明,在大多数情况下,美元和瑞士法郎能够在动荡时期保护投资者免受股市损失。在那些时期,黄金最接近于法国、波兰、捷克共和国和斯洛伐克投资者的避险工具。我们的发现与其他文献一致,这些文献指出,避险工具会随着时间和国家的不同而改变。在这些文献中,我们可以找到针对美国、中国、加拿大和英国的研究,但没有针对波兰、意大利、捷克共和国或斯洛伐克的研究。因此,本文的目的就是试图填补这一研究空白。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Alternative investments during turbulent times comparison of dynamic relationship
The coronavirus pandemic, like the Russian aggression on Ukraine, had a significant impact on many financial markets and asset prices. The latter additionally led to large fluctuations on financial markets. In this paper, we try to compare the performance of safe haven assets during turbulent times, such as the recent global financial crises, eurozone debt crises, the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian aggression on Ukraine. We investigate the dynamic relationship between indices from the European countries like the Czech Republic, France, Germany, Great Britain, Poland, Slovakia, Spain, and popular instruments such as gold, silver, Brent Crude Oil, Crude Oil WTI, US Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Bitcoin. The study estimated the parameters of either DCC or CCC models, to compare the dynamic relation between the above-mentioned stock markets and financial instruments. The results showed that in most cases, the US Dollar and Swiss Franc were able to protect investors from stock market losses during turbulent times. In those periods, gold was the closest to being a safe haven instrument for investors from France, Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovakia. Our findings are in line with other literature which points out that safe haven instruments can change over time and across countries. In that literature, we can find research performed for the USA, China, Canada, and Great Britain, but there is no such research for Poland, Italy, the Czech Republic or Slovakia. The purpose of this paper is therefore to try to fill this research gap.
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