远见在塑造下一次生产革命中的作用

Attila Havas, Matthias Weber
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引用次数: 82

摘要

在应对下一次生产革命带来的机遇和挑战时,远见是非常有用的工具。正如本章所考虑的各种国家案例所示,它促进了对多种未来的辩论和系统思考,并通过参与和参与的过程帮助塑造未来。鉴于其参与性,主要行为体被动员起来形成对未来的共同看法,就其未来的利害关系和利益进行谈判,并就符合其共同愿景的行动达成一致。下一次生产革命需要快速和主动的政策制定,以及跨不同政策领域的更好的编排。远见可以为政策制定者提供强有力的政策基础,促进政策问题的新框架,并将长期关注转化为一致的政策重点。此外,如果关键利益相关者尽早参与制定这些政策,政策的实施可能会更快、更有效。然而,预见的好处远不是自动产生的:本章考虑了实现这些好处的八个关键因素。将预见过程巧妙地纳入决策过程可以提高产生影响的可能性,但预见建议不能替代政策决定和行动。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
The Role of Foresight in Shaping the Next Production Revolution
Foresight can be a highly useful tool to address the opportunities and challenges triggered by the next production revolution. As shown by the various country cases considered in this chapter, it facilitates debating and systemic thinking about multiple futures and helps shaping the future through the process of participation and engagement. Given its participatory nature, key actors are mobilised to form shared views about the future, negotiate their future stakes and interests, and agree on actions aligned to their shared vision. The next production revolution requires quick and proactive policy-making, as well as better orchestration across different policy domains. Foresight can assist policy-makers by providing foundations for robust policies, fostering new framing of policy issues, as well as translating long-term concerns into aligned policy priorities. Furthermore, policy implementation is likely to be faster and more effective when key stakeholders are involved early on in shaping these policies. Foresight benefits, however, are far from being automatic: the chapter considers eight factors critical to achieving those. An astute embedding of a foresight process into policy-making enhances the likelihood of impact, but foresight recommendations are no substitute for policy decisions and actions.
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