气候变化与旱季水稻(Oryza sativa L.)孟加拉国西北部的生产

The Agriculturists Pub Date : 2017-08-04 DOI:10.3329/AGRIC.V15I1.33430

J. Biswas, M. Hossain, A. Choudhury, N. Kalra, M. Maniruzzaman

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引用次数: 2

摘要

气候变化正在影响孟加拉国一些农业生态区的水稻生产。基于1971 - 2010年的历史气象数据，分析了季节气候变化对孟加拉国西北部旱作低地水稻(移栽水稻或T. aman)产量的影响。湿润季最高气温和最低气温分别升高0.0174和0.0083℃。同一时期的日照时数每年减少0.0259-0.027小时。基于代表性浓度路径(RCP)的预测显示，2050年最高气温和最低气温分别升高0.42 ~ 1.51°C和0.79 ~ 1.34°C。温度每升高1℃，水稻产量可减少0.17 ~ 0.37 t / h。日照时数每减少1 h，产量可减少0.20 t / h。最低气温的升高和日照时数的减少共同影响着未来稻的产量。农学家2017;15 (1) 68 - 80

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Climatic Variability and Wet Season Rice ( Oryza sativa L.) Production in North-West Bangladesh

Climate change is influencing rice ( Oryza sativa L.) production in some agro-ecological regions of Bangladesh. The impact of seasonal climatic variability on rainfed lowland rice (transplanted aman or T. Aman ) yield in north-west Bangladesh was analyzed based on historic weather data from 1971 to 2010. Wet season maximum and minimum temperatures were increasing by 0.0174 and 0.0083°C year -1 , respectively. Sunshine hours for the same period have decreased by 0.0259-0.027 hr year -1 . The representative concentration pathway (RCP) based projection showed increased maximum and minimum temperatures by 0.42-1.51 and 0.79-1.34°C, respectively in 2050. T. Aman rice yield could be reduced by 0.17-0.37 t ha -1 if temperature rises by 1°C. If sunshine hour decreases by 1 hr, yield reduction could be 0.20 t ha -1 . Combined effect of increased minimum temperature and decreased sunshine hours will govern T. Aman rice yield in future. The Agriculturists 2017; 15(1) 68-80

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