动态情景与风对数值天气预报(NWP)的特别高影响之间联系的研究

Anne Martin, M. Weissmann, A. Cress
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引用次数: 4

摘要

摘要Aeolus卫星任务的全球风廓线为数值天气预报(NWP)提供了重要的风信息来源。数据同化实验表明,分析结果的平均变化很大,预测误差显著降低。在Deutscher weterdienst (DWD),于2020年7月至2020年10月进行了为期3个月的观测系统试验(OSE),以评估Aeolus水平视距(HLOS)风观测对ICOsahedral non - hydrostatic (ICON)全球模式业务数据同化系统的影响。为了更好地了解导致整体有益影响的潜在动力,研究人员对风蚀影响特别大的特定时间段和区域进行了研究。在本研究中,我们举例说明了三种大气现象,它们构成了通过风的同化而显著减少预报误差的动力情景:大尺度热带环流系统的相移,即准两年一次涛动(QBO)和El Niño-Southern涛动(ENSO),以及经历温带过渡(ET)的热带气旋与中纬度波导的相互作用。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Investigation of links between dynamical scenarios and particularly high impact of Aeolus on numerical weather prediction (NWP) forecasts
Abstract. Global wind profiles from the Aeolus satellite mission provide an important source of wind information for numerical weather prediction (NWP). Data assimilation experiments show large mean changes in the analysis and a significant reduction in forecast errors. At Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD), a 3-month observing system experiment (OSE), from July 2020 to October 2020, was performed to evaluate the impact of the Aeolus horizontal line-of-sight (HLOS) wind observations in the operational data assimilation system of the ICOsahedral Nonhydrostatic (ICON) global model. To better understand the underlying dynamics leading to the overall beneficial impact, specific time periods and regions with a particularly high impact of Aeolus are investigated. In this study, we illustrate three examples of atmospheric phenomena that constitute dynamical scenarios for significant forecast error reduction through the assimilation of Aeolus: the phase shift of large-scale tropical circulation systems, namely the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the interaction of tropical cyclones undergoing extratropical transition (ET) with the midlatitude waveguide.
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