Evaluation of Weather Forecast Uncertainty for HV Grid Operational Resilience Improvement

The quality of any electricity transmission service is based on the ability to ensure continuity of the electricity supply in compliance with adequate voltage and frequency values over time. Similar or higher levels of power quality must be warranted also in presence of higher RES penetration, growth of energy consumptions, peak power requests and increasing presence of electronic components in building and industrial sectors. However, the electricity grid, by its nature, is exposed to a wide range of threats and attacks, which are often related to negative weather conditions and are not easy to predict in terms of location and intensity. The consequence of unexpected adverse weather events may impact on the resilience of the HV electrical grid.The development of predictive models has always been of interest to the Italian electricity sector and allows utilities to understand the potential consequences of an event and plan to mitigate these consequences before it occurs.In the present paper, comparisons between traditional weather forecasting systems (forecast day-1 and final data) and the additional information achieved by local meteorological stations are reported with the aim to evaluate the real precision of the actual forecasting systems from the perspective of improving the resilience of the HV grid.