The prediction model of initial flowering based on accumulated temperature of different species peach in Longquanyi

The phenological model refers to a mathematical model based on the response mechanism of plants to environmental factors, which can be used to simulate plant growth and development.So far, many scholars have established various types of phenological models. We know that changes in phenological period of plants are closely related to meteorological conditions. Previous studies have shown that temperature plays a key and decisive role in various meteorological factors which affects phenological period of plants. In recent years, phenological models have been used to reconstruct past climate change, predict changes in tree species distribution, and plant disaster risk assessment, etc. Longquanyi is the seat of the state-level Chengdu Economic and Technological Development Zone. Longquanyi is rich in peaches. And the peach is one of the main economic crops and ornamental plants in the area. Accurately predicting the flowering period of peach blossoms will play an important role in increasing the income of local farmers and adapting to the demand for tourism meteorological services. Based on the phenological and meteorological data of Meteorological Bureau of Longquanyi, this paper establishes prediction models for the initial flowering period of different species of peach blossoms based on effective accumulated temperature by linear regression and statistical analysis, and carries out the simulation and test of the initial flowering period. At the same time, we have analyzed the response sensitivity of the prediction model that passed the test under the temperature change. We know that the initial flowering period of traditional peach blossom, greenhouse peach blossom and ornamental peach blossom can be simulated based on the prediction model established by effective accumulated temperature, and the accuracy is high. The last,We can get the results of the sensitivity of the prediction model of the three types of peach to the change of temperature factor. During the same period, the temperature decreased by 2 °C, and the initial flowering period of the three types of peach blossoms was delayed by 15.38d on average. During the same period, the temperature increased by 2 °C, and the initial flowering period of the three types of peach blossoms was 17.33d on average.