Can we predict types of code changes? An empirical analysis

There exist many approaches that help in pointing developers to the change-prone parts of a software system. Although beneficial, they mostly fall short in providing details of these changes. Fine-grained source code changes (SCC) capture such detailed code changes and their semantics on the statement level. These SCC can be condition changes, interface modifications, inserts or deletions of methods and attributes, or other kinds of statement changes. In this paper, we explore prediction models for whether a source file will be affected by a certain type of SCC. These predictions are computed on the static source code dependency graph and use social network centrality measures and object-oriented metrics. For that, we use change data of the Eclipse platform and the Azureus 3 project. The results show that Neural Network models can predict categories of SCC types. Furthermore, our models can output a list of the potentially change-prone files ranked according to their change-proneness, overall and per change type category.