水资源管理的决策支持工具:以泰国Bung Boraphet湿地为例

N. Sriwongsitanon, Kritsanat Surakit, P. Hawkins, N. Chandrasena
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引用次数: 12

摘要

泰国邦博拉斐湿地的水和其他自然资源因过度开发而面临越来越大的压力。湿地资源的可持续管理和“明智利用”需要在经济开发和保护之间取得平衡。基于科学的决策支持工具对于更好地了解大型湿地系统、其贡献的集水区和洪泛平原之间的复杂相互作用至关重要,从而为规划有效的长期管理铺平道路。本文介绍了我们为Bung Boraphet开发的几个决策支持工具的摘要。这些工具是:(a)水预算预测模型;(b)利用卫星图像进行土地利用分析;(c)与数据库相连的地理信息系统。通过对文献和实地研究的回顾,我们确定了对Bung Boraphet的长期可持续性产生最严重影响的因素。2002年12月至2006年5月,我们还进行了实地调查,收集了湖泊水文参数的原始数据。然后利用这些数据和现有的二手数据来开发湿地的日水量收支模型。这一时期的模式计算与观测水位高度相关,证明了模式的准确性。在旱季,水分的蒸发损失是一个关键因素(~ 41%的损失),在湖周围侵占地区种植的灌溉水稻的提取也是一个关键因素(~55%的损失)。建模工具允许分析不同的用水情况。例如,该模型预测,即使像一些利益相关者所建议的那样,将堰高提高0.5米,达到+24.5米(MSL)的水平,灌溉用水量也必须减少目前消耗量的35%,以维持可持续渔业所建议的最低水位(+23米,MSL)。通过一系列Landsat 5卫星图像,可以深入了解周围集水区和湖泊的土地利用变化。图片对比显示,1993年至2003年间,湖周围的灌溉面积翻了一番。与此同时,湖泊的淹没植被和新兴植被减少了50%。已开发的与地理信息系统相连的数据库包括气象数据和关于该湖及其集水区的水文、水质和生物多样性的初级和/或次级数据,并涵盖主要河流及其支流。应用决策支持工具获得的信息激发了与主要利益相关者的讨论,确定了需要保护的“湿地价值”,以及未来管理计划需要实现的经济、环境和社会目标。正如本文所讨论的,我们通过展示基于科学依据的湿地管理决策的价值,对正在进行的关于管理邦博拉斐特的话语的性质做出了重大改变。正在制定的POM预计将得到多个利益攸关方的支持,以便Bung Boraphet的资源能够持续供今世后代使用。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Decision Support Tools for Water Resource Management:A Case Study of Bung Boraphet Wetland, Thailand
Water and other natural resources of Bung Boraphet Wetland in Thailand have been under increasing pressure from over-exploitation. Sustainable management and ‘wise-use’ of the Wetland’s resources require achieving a balance between economic exploitation and conservation. Scientifically based decision support tools are vital to gain better insights into the complex interactions between the large wetland system, its contributing catchment and floodplain, and then pave the way for planning effective long-term management. This paper presents a summary of several decision support tools that we developed for Bung Boraphet. The tools are: (a) Water budget predictive model, (b) Land-use analysis using satellite imagery, and (c) Database linked Geographic Information System. From a review of literature and field studies, we identified the factors, which are having the most serious impacts on long-term sustainability of Bung Boraphet. We also conducted field studies to collect primary data on hydrological parameters on the lake between December 2002 and May 2006. These, and available secondary data, were then used to develop a model for the daily water budget of the Wetland. Model calculations and observed water levels are highly correlated for this period, proving the veracity of the model. Evaporation loss of water is a critical factor during the dry seasons (~ 41% loss), as is extraction for irrigated rice grown in encroached areas around the lake (~55% loss). The modeling tool allows the analysis of different water use scenarios. For instance, the model forecasts that even if the weir height is raised by 0.5 m to the level of +24.5 m (MSL), as has been suggested by some stakeholders, irrigation water abstraction has to be reduced by 35 % of the current consumption, to maintain the recommended minimum water level (+23 m, MSL) for sustainable fishery. Insights into land use change in the surrounding catchment and lake were gained by a series of Landsat 5 satellite imagery. A comparison of imagery shows that between 1993 and 2003, the irrigated area surrounding the lake doubled. At the same time, the submerged and emergent vegetation in the lake declined by 50%. The database linked GIS, which was developed, includes meteorological data and primary and/or secondary data on hydrology, water quality, and biodiversity of the lake and its catchments, and covers the main rivers and their tributaries. Information from applying the decision support tools has stimulated discussions with key stakeholders, identifying the ‘wetland values’, which need protection, and the economic, environmental, and social goals that need to be met by a future Plan of Management. As discussed in this paper, we have made a significant difference to the nature of the discourse in progress regarding managing Bung Boraphet by demonstrating the value of basing wetland management decisions on scientific grounds. The POM, which is being developed, is expected to receive multiple stakeholder support, so that Bung Boraphet’s resources can be sustained for the use by present and future generations.
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