评估软件开发工作评估的不确定性:从结果反馈中学习

Tanja M. Gruschke, M. Jørgensen
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引用次数: 18

摘要

为了实现适当规模的软件项目预算和计划,能够评估完成项目所需的最可能工作量的不确定性是很重要的。以前的研究表明,软件专业人员倾向于对他们工作量估计的不确定性过于乐观。本文报告了结果反馈在努力估计不确定性评估学习过程中的作用的初步研究结果。软件开发人员得到了重复的和即时的结果反馈,例如,关于估计的最有可能的工作和实际工作之间的差异的反馈,目的是调查他们改进(学习)的程度和方式。我们发现,改进工作量估算的不确定性评估的必要条件可能是使用明确制定的不确定性评估策略。相比之下,基于直觉的不确定性评估策略可能导致没有或很少的学习
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Assessing uncertainty of software development effort estimates: the learning from outcome feedback
To enable properly sized software projects budgets and plans it is important to be able to assess the uncertainty of the estimates of most likely effort required to complete the projects. Previous studies show that software professionals tend to be too optimistic about the uncertainty of their effort estimates. This paper reports the results from a preliminary study on the role of outcome feedback in the learning process on effort estimation uncertainty assessment. Software developers were given repeated and immediate outcome feedback, i.e., feedback about the discrepancy between the estimated most likely effort and the actual effort, for the purpose of investigating how much, and how, they improve (learn). We found that a necessary condition for improvement of uncertainty assessments of effort estimates may be the use of explicitly formulated uncertainty assessment strategies. By contrast, intuition-based uncertainty assessment strategies may lead to no or little learning
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