透视中央银行的目标政策

P. Jaillet, Benoît Mojon
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引用次数: 0

摘要

中央银行最初主要致力于金融稳定任务,直到第二次世界大战后才发展其宏观经济指导作用。1973年布雷顿森林体系的崩溃导致他们用国内目标取代外部货币锚定的丧失,最初以货币总量为目标,然后从上世纪80年代起,以通胀为目标。通过一个实验-模仿的过程,通货膨胀目标制已经在大多数经合组织国家和许多新兴国家得到广泛应用。然而,2008年的危机引发了一场广泛的辩论,讨论这种策略在低通胀环境下的有效性。本文提出了名义GDP和价格水平的替代选项的反事实模拟。虽然这些选择具有优势,例如在动荡时期货币政策的反应性方面,但它们并不能使大型货币区实行的灵活通胀目标制政策无效。这场危机也让金融稳定任务重新成为央行的核心任务。关切,提出三个问题,涉及它们的权限范围、其是否符合其独立地位以及它们的货币职能和审慎职能之间的相互作用。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Central Banks’ Objective Policies in Perspective
Initially mainly dedicated to financial stability tasks, central banks did not develop their macroeconomic steering role until after the Second World War. The 1973 collapse of the Bretton Wood system led them to replace the loss of external monetary anchoring with domestic objectives, first targeted at monetary aggregates and then, from the 1980s onwards, at inflation. Through a process of experimentation-imitation, inflation targeting has become widespread in most OECD countries and in many emerging countries. However, the 2008 crisis sparked a wide-ranging debate on the validity of such a strategy in a low-inflation environment. The paper presents counterfactual simulations of alternative options for nominal GDP and the price level. While these options have advantages, for example in terms of the responsiveness of monetary policy in turbulent times, they do not invalidate flexible inflation targeting policies as practiced in large currency areas. The crisis has also put financial stability tasks back at the heart of central banks? concerns, raising three questions related to their scope of competence, its compatibility with their independence status and the interactions between their monetary and prudential functions.
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